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Further price declines are expected over the next decade. Battery prices saw their biggest annual drop since 2017, with lithium-ion battery pack prices down by 20% from 2023 to a record low of $115/kWh, according to analysis by BloombergNEF (BNEF).
According to the survey, average battery prices are expected to slip below $100 per kWh as soon as 2026. This is widely considered the “price parity” threshold with ICE vehicles. By 2030, prices could fall as low as $69 per kWh. The study also points out that geopolitical uncertainties and slower demand could impact pricing.
Our researchers forecast that average battery prices could fall towards $80/kWh by 2026, amounting to a drop of almost 50% from 2023, a level at which battery electric vehicles would achieve ownership cost parity with gasoline-fueled cars in the US on an unsubsidized basis. Source: Company data, Wood Mackenzie, SNE Research, Goldman Sachs Research
That is more than 2.5 times annual demand for lithium-ion batteries in 2024, according to BNEF. “The price drop for battery cells this year was greater compared with that seen in battery metal prices, indicating that margins for battery manufacturers are being squeezed.
EV battery prices are plummeting, falling faster than most expected. This year will mark the steepest decline since 2017. With new tech and cheaper alternatives hitting the market, electric vehicles will soon be even more affordable than their gas-powered counterparts.
The figures represent an average across different geographies and multiple application areas, including different types of electric vehicles, buses and stationary storage projects. On a regional basis, average battery pack prices were lowest in China, at $94/kWh.
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